Season 10, stage 1 qualifying simulation after round 18

I reran the simulation at the end of round 18, There are 6 known results that don't have to be simulated. The full explanation of how the simulation is run can be found in my previous post.

There are small changes in the simulation results compared to the round 17 results. Gull and Fire qualify with high probability, the last qualifier is either Chiron or Booot. The result of game 232 (Chiron-Booot) may be crucial. Also, Chiron has an advantage in SB score in case of a tie break with Booot, but this may change.

The remaining games

• Gull (12 pts) - 1 Hard, 3 Easy, 1 Within (Fizbo)
• Fire (11.5 pts) - 2 Hard, 3 Easy, 0 Within 
• Booot (11.5 pts) - 1 Hard, 1 Easy, 3 Within (Chiron, Jonny, Hannibal)
• Chiron (11 pts) - 1 Hard, 3 Easy, 1 Within (Booot)
• Hannibal (10 pts) - 2 Hard, 2 Easy, 1 Within (Booot)
• Fizbo (10 pts) - 1 Hard, 3 Easy, 1 Within (Gull) 
• Jonny (9.5 pts) - 1 Hard, 3 Easy, 1 Within (Booot)

Results of 10000 simulations
Average final scores, sorted:

1. Gull - 15.03865
2. Fire - 14.2973
3. Chiron - 14.02615
4. Booot - 14.02035 
5. Fizbo - 13.02395
6. Hannibal - 12.54555 
7. Jonny - 12.5394

Gull looks sure to qualify, Fire has a small margin of safety, Booot and Chiron are neck-and-neck, the rest have no chance. Of course no engine qualifies on average score...

Percent of simulations to qualify, including tie breaks:

1. Gull - 97%
2. Fire - 86%
3. Chiron - 68%
4. Booot - 65%
5. Fizbo - 15%  
6. Jonny - 5%
7. Hannibal - 5%

 Score for 3rd place including tie breaks:

• 13 or less - less than 1%
• 13.5 - 15%
• 14 - 47%
• 14.5 - 32%
• 15 or more - less than 6%