Season 10, stage 1 qualification roadmap

We are approaching the end of round 20, 3-4 games left for the engines. Instead of running more simulations I think it is time to use what we have learned and look at the crosstable.

The 9th place at the end of round 20 will have 11.5 points, Chiron and possibly Fizbo if it wins its game. With 3 games left this means that a final score of 15 is enough for qualification with mathematical certainty. A final score of 14.5 ensures at least a tiebreak for qualification.

Using the results of the simulation after round 19 (look at the score graphs at the bottom) we see that a score of 14.5 means a high probabiity of qualification without tiebreaks. A score of 14 may be enough for a tie break, and below that is probably not enough for qualification .
Let's look at the candidates:

• Stockfish and Komodo have qualified, they are fighting for the title (of stage 1).
• Houdini at 14.5 will surely collect at least 0.5 points and qualify.
• Ginkgo at 13.5 with opponents Houdini, Booot and Texel, should be able to collect 1.5 points, I think it will be a big surprise if it doesn't.
• Andscacs at 13 with opponents Gull, Fizbo, Wasp and Laser. Again, based on its peformance so far it should easily find 2 points.
• Gull at 12.5 with opponents Andscacs, Nirvana, Bobcat and Wasp. I think that 2.5 points is possible if it draws Andscacs, 2 points should be easy. It shouldn't lose any game against the 3 lower ranked opponents and at least one win is reasonable.
• Booot at 13 with opponents Ginkgo, Jonny and Hannibal. Three opponents of similar or higher rank, getting 2 points may be difficult. Any decisive game here may be crucial.
• Fire at 12 with opponents Komodo, Texel, Arasan and Nemorino. Getting 2 points should be easy, 2.5 if it draws Komodo.
• Chiron at 11.5 with opponents Fruit, Gaviota and Hakkapeliitta. Chiron's last three games should be easy. It needs 3 wins to qualify, not impossible. 2.5 may be enough for a tie break.
• Fizbo at 10.5 with opponents Andscacs, Bobcat, Arasan and Nemorino. Assuming it won't beat Andscacs but gets a draw, Fizbo may reach a tie break if it wins the other three games. Possible but not very probable.

As for tie breaks I think it is too early to speculate. I can roughly estimate that for a tie break at 14 points the engines will have SB of around 115-120, too close to analyze now.