The 9th place at the end of round 20 will have 11.5 points, Chiron and possibly Fizbo if it wins its game. With 3 games left this means that a final score of 15 is enough for qualification with mathematical certainty. A final score of 14.5 ensures at least a tiebreak for qualification.
Using the results of the simulation after round 19 (look at the score graphs at the bottom) we see that a score of 14.5 means a high probabiity of qualification without tiebreaks. A score of 14 may be enough for a tie break, and below that is probably not enough for qualification .
Let's look at the candidates:
- Stockfish and Komodo have qualified, they are fighting for the title (of stage 1).
- Houdini at 14.5 will surely collect at least 0.5 points and qualify.
- Ginkgo at 13.5 with opponents Houdini, Booot and Texel, should be able to collect 1.5 points, I think it will be a big surprise if it doesn't.
- Andscacs at 13 with opponents Gull, Fizbo, Wasp and Laser. Again, based on its peformance so far it should easily find 2 points.
- Gull at 12.5 with opponents Andscacs, Nirvana, Bobcat and Wasp. I think that 2.5 points is possible if it draws Andscacs, 2 points should be easy. It shouldn't lose any game against the 3 lower ranked opponents and at least one win is reasonable.
- Booot at 13 with opponents Ginkgo, Jonny and Hannibal. Three opponents of similar or higher rank, getting 2 points may be difficult. Any decisive game here may be crucial.
- Fire at 12 with opponents Komodo, Texel, Arasan and Nemorino. Getting 2 points should be easy, 2.5 if it draws Komodo.
- Chiron at 11.5 with opponents Fruit, Gaviota and Hakkapeliitta. Chiron's last three games should be easy. It needs 3 wins to qualify, not impossible. 2.5 may be enough for a tie break.
- Fizbo at 10.5 with opponents Andscacs, Bobcat, Arasan and Nemorino. Assuming it won't beat Andscacs but gets a draw, Fizbo may reach a tie break if it wins the other three games. Possible but not very probable.