Sunday, November 5, 2017

Season 10, stage 1, Will Chiron qualify?

Chiron has a chance to qualify with a SB tie break, assuming it wins its remaining games against Fruit and Gaviota. The current crosstable for the 5 engines in the race is

If Chiron wins the next two games it will have 14.5 points. Let's compare SB in case another engine ends up with 14.5:

• Gull - the SB difference is (Ko + Ni + Te - Ho - Va - La) = 14.5 currently. If Gull gets only a point out of Andscacs and Bobcat it gets at most An - Bo, Chiron beats it on SB.
• Booot - the SB difference is (Ko + Fi + Jo + Ry - St - Fz - Va - Ar) = 6 currently. If Booot gets a point out of Ginkgo and Hannibal the best it can achieve is Gi - Ha, it won't be able to close the gap.
• Fire - the SB difference is (Fz + Ni + Ry - Bt - Bo - Wa - Ar - La) = -11 currently. If Fire only gets 0.5 from Komodo and Texel Chiron will add either 2Te or Ko + Te, either way it will have a better SB.
• Ginkgo - the SB difference is (Ko + Jo + Te - Ha - Bo - Ar - La) = 8 currently. Assuming Chiron beats Gaviota and Ginkgo only gets 0.5 from Houdini and Booot it at most adds Ho - Bt, Chiron still has a better SB.
So, is Chiron in or out? Two more rounds to go.