Season 10, stage 1 qualifying simulation after round 17

We assume that Stockfish, Komodo, Houdini, Andscacs and Ginkgo will qualify, and that the remaining qualifiers are 3 out of Gull, Booot, Fire, Chiron, Jonny, Hannibal and Fizbo. For the simulation we use probabllilities based on the results of the first 17 rounds, dividing the games into 3 categories:

• Hard - opponent in top 5.
• Easy - opponent in bottom 12.
• Within - opponent within group of 7 contenders. 

Hard and Easy games are independent, Within games affect two engines in a dependent manner. The probabilities, as calculated from the crosstable, are

• Hard - 0/24 wins, 13/24 draws, 11/24 losses
• Easy - 35/63 wins, 25/63 draws, 3/63 losses
• Within - 7/24 wins, 10/24 draws, 7/24 losses

The remaining games

• Gull (11 pts) - 1 Hard, 4 Easy, 1 Within (Fizbo)
• Booot (11 pts) - 2 Hard, 1 Easy, 3 Within (Chiron, Jonny, Hannibal)
• Fire (10.5 pts) - 2 Hard, 4 Easy, 0 Within 
• Chiron (10 pts) - 1 Hard, 4 Easy, 1 Within (Booot)
• Jonny (9.5 pts) - 2 Hard, 3 Easy, 1 Within (Booot)
• Hannibal (9 pts) - 2 Hard, 3 Easy, 1 Within (Booot)
• Fizbo (9 pts) - 1 Hard, 4 Easy, 1 Within (Gull) 

Results of 10000 simulations
Average final scores, sorted:

1. Gull - 14.78270
2. Fire - 14.05160
3. Booot - 13.79365
4. Chiron - 13.78245
5. Jonny - 12.81035
6. Fizbo - 12.78500 
7. Hannibal - 12.30105 

Gull looks sure to qualify, Fire has a small margin of safety, Booot and Chiron are neck-and-neck, the rest have no chance. Of course no engine qualifies on average score...

Percent of simulations to qualify, including tie breaks:

1. Gull - 96%
2. Fire - 82%
3. Booot - 65%
4. Chiron - 65%
5. Jonny - 18%
6. Fizbo - 16% 
7. Hannibal - 6%

 Score for 3rd place including tie breaks:

• 13 or less - less than 4%
• 13.5 - 30%
• 14 - 47%
• 14.5 18%
• 15 or more - less than 2%